Britain's ?6bn bill to bail out Portugal...

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  • gmb45
    Admin Assistant
    • Nov 2008
    • 7538

    #1

    Britain's ?6bn bill to bail out Portugal...

    ...and will Spain be next?

    ah ffs

    Fears were growing last night that Spain could be next in line for a humiliating European bailout as it emerged that Britain could face a ?6billion bill to rescue Portugal.

    George Osborne and his European counterparts are gathering today in Budapest, the Hungarian capital, for crisis talks after debt-stricken Portugal finally issued a formal request for help.

    The Chancellor last night insisted that Portugal?s fate demonstrated that Britain would be ?playing Russian roulette? with the economy if it did not press ahead with painful spending cuts and tax rises to restore the public finances to health.

    The pain in Spain: Spanish students clashed with police during demonstrations in Madrid last night. Youth groups are protesting Government austerity measures aimed at bringing down the national debt

    But there was a furious response from Eurosceptic Conservatives at the prospect of British taxpayers being dragged into the Portuguese bailout.

    Treasury sources confirmed that Britain could be required to give a multi-billion pound guarantee to pay off Portugal?s loans under the terms of a deal signed by Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling in the days after his party lost the General Election, but before the Coalition was formed last May.

    Ugly scenes: A protester blocks the traffic with a vandalised road sign in the centre of Madrid during last night's clashes



    The Tory leader in Brussels, Euro MP Martin Callanan, insisted the UK should play no part in the bailout and claimed the legality of the EU agreement was ?highly dubious?.

    Some experts warned that the much bigger Spanish economy could be the next target for the markets.

    Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital, a City trading house, said: ?It?s all about Portugal today, but by tomorrow, it?ll be Spain, then Italy perhaps. The phrase being used about Spain is ?too big to fail, too big to bail?.?

    Spain?s economics minister, Elena Salgado Amid, insisted a bailout was ?absolutely ruled out?.

    Portugal is today expected to submit a detailed request for a rescue package of between ?65billion and ?75billion. Treasury sources said the UK was not planning to offer any direct loans to Portugal.

    But they confirmed that Britain could be required to guarantee a loan of up to about ?4.4billion ? 13.6 per cent of an EU bailout fund ? as well as 4.5 per cent of an IMF loan to Portugal, which could take the total to ?6billion.

    The Treasury stressed that Britain would only end up having to pay out any money if Portugal defaulted on the loan.

    The financial chaos engulfing Portugal could trigger a fresh wave of painful losses for British banks.

    Experts say the Portuguese state will have no choice but to renege on its debt because the country?s bail-out is unlikely to be comprehensive enough to shore up its battered finances.

    A default would crystallise damaging losses for British lenders, which have loan books totalling ?15billion in the crisis-torn nation.

    Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics, said there was a ?strong likelihood? Portugal will have to ?restructure? its debts in 2013, meaning creditors won?t get repaid in full.
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  • oneman
    DK Veteran
    • Mar 2011
    • 307

    #2
    Just to clarify if I am reading it right. UK is underwritting loans, not giving the money to Portugal. Also no european country has defaulted on national debt since WWII and countries have the option of selling national reserves to avoid defaulting ?

    Comment

    • Canker_Canison
      V.I.P. Member
      • May 2010
      • 3905

      #3
      Or, to put it another way, once the agreement is signed... Portugal will belong to Brussels. Their government will have no control over their own budget.
      Canker

      "Animal, vegetable or mineral... I'll do anything, to anything, with anything"
      - The Baby Eating Bishop of Bath & Wells
      [COLOR=Green]

      Comment

      • oneman
        DK Veteran
        • Mar 2011
        • 307

        #4
        Originally posted by Canker_Canison
        Or, to put it another way, once the agreement is signed... Portugal will belong to Brussels. Their government will have no control over their own budget.
        pretty much correct. same as ireland and greece that they have to show budget changes before loans will be signed.

        Comment

        • nara
          DK Veteran
          • May 2008
          • 2586

          #5
          Originally posted by oneman
          Just to clarify if I am reading it right. UK is underwritting loans, not giving the money to Portugal.
          Correct. It's highly unlikely that any money will actually change hands.
          He who laughs last probably didn't get the joke.

          Comment

          • thered
            V.I.P. Member
            • Aug 2008
            • 4915

            #6
            what happens if they dont pay it back?

            same as ireland or greece

            can we send in a bailiff?

            will we own the rights to madeira cake?

            can we all have a villa in the algarve ?

            can we bomb them?

            what happens if they dont pay us this imaginary money back which tbh we are geting from our imaginary bank account anyway?

            what happens if they say ~~~~ you we are not paying you back we cant afford it and that tv set is not mine im minding it for me mam so you cant take it

            Comment

            • super jumbe
              V.I.P. Member
              • Dec 2008
              • 11610

              #7
              I remember few years ago the Iceland got hold of most of our local council money deposited for high returns when Iceland was bankrupt we could do nothing to get our money back, it?s a risky debt.

              Tools owned: Hammer, Chisel, Crowbar, Punch, Chainsaw, Cutter and Brain!!!

              Did you know People will question all the good things they hear about you but believe all the bad without a second thought.

              Note:
              All information given is to be used for educational purposes only and should not be taken seriously.

              Comment

              • oneman
                DK Veteran
                • Mar 2011
                • 307

                #8
                Originally posted by thered
                what happens if they dont pay it back?

                same as ireland or greece

                can we send in a bailiff?

                will we own the rights to madeira cake?

                can we all have a villa in the algarve ?

                can we bomb them?

                what happens if they dont pay us this imaginary money back which tbh we are geting from our imaginary bank account anyway?

                what happens if they say ~~~~ you we are not paying you back we cant afford it and that tv set is not mine im minding it for me mam so you cant take it
                I haven't seen anywhere that says Greece and Ireland have not / will not be paying back the loans. Remember the money promised I believe is just guarantee goverment bonds that the country issues.

                It would be very difficult for portugal to continue to trade with other countries if they defaults. As I said no country in europe has defaulted on loans since WWII. In fact I believe the only country to have done so is Argentina back in early 70's.

                Comment

                • thered
                  V.I.P. Member
                  • Aug 2008
                  • 4915

                  #9
                  still doesnt answer the question though what happens if they do default?

                  just because no one has since the war is not and indication that it wont happen after the war economies grew half the countries needed rebuilding the current economic downturn is probably worse than the 30's

                  do we,germany and france just say thats it we are buying no more whatever we get from portugal and thats it

                  they could still trade with anyone from outside the eurozone freely even if we did stop trading in madiera cake if they cant pay this reported ?80 billion payout what happens?

                  and why cant they just borrow it off themselves like we do?

                  Comment

                  • oneman
                    DK Veteran
                    • Mar 2011
                    • 307

                    #10
                    Originally posted by thered
                    still doesnt answer the question though what happens if they do default?

                    just because no one has since the war is not and indication that it wont happen after the war economies grew half the countries needed rebuilding the current economic downturn is probably worse than the 30's

                    do we,germany and france just say thats it we are buying no more whatever we get from portugal and thats it

                    they could still trade with anyone from outside the eurozone freely even if we did stop trading in madiera cake if they cant pay this reported ?80 billion payout what happens?

                    and why cant they just borrow it off themselves like we do?
                    First I would say the key indicators show that the current crisis is nowhere near as bad as the 30's. I was not alive then so I don't know for sure.

                    The problem is no so much trade but government bonds which is how governments raise money. Who would want to buy them once there is a bad credit risk so borrowing becomes expensive for them. Thus defaulting on payments is a bad idea long term just like it is for individuals.

                    Comment

                    • thered
                      V.I.P. Member
                      • Aug 2008
                      • 4915

                      #11
                      Originally posted by oneman
                      First I would say the key indicators show that the current crisis is nowhere near as bad as the 30's. I was not alive then so I don't know for sure.
                      i am unsure myself but i dont think governments had to fund the banks to stop them all going bust

                      unemployment was around a million compard to about 6 million now that are on various different benefits not just JSA in uk

                      i know the population is now bigger but the state didnt have to pay NHS and state benefits in 1930 another drain on the economy and another thing kids who left school at 13/14 which was the norm were classed as working population

                      as for bonds i have no idea but why dont they lend themselves the cash like we do?

                      Comment

                      • oneman
                        DK Veteran
                        • Mar 2011
                        • 307

                        #12
                        There is some interesting data here,

                        UK National Debt - Current, Recent, Historical Charts Tables

                        GDP is a good indicator of how much money the country is earning. So if you measure GDP vs debt it is an indicator of how easy it is to pay debt. So if your GDP is low then even a small debt would be hard to pay.

                        As you can see for UK its around 1/3 of what it was in the 30's. Portugal is currently around 130% I think. There is some global data for last year here,

                        GDP vs National Debt by Country -

                        As you can see japan could be real trouble however a lot of their borrowing is internal. India has a high debt ratio and most of that is foreign but investors think its an expanding economy so their cost of borrowing is still low.

                        What this does not show so well is how much of debt is foreign and how much is internal borrowing.

                        Comment

                        • thered
                          V.I.P. Member
                          • Aug 2008
                          • 4915

                          #13
                          Originally posted by oneman
                          There is some interesting data here,

                          UK National Debt - Current, Recent, Historical Charts Tables

                          GDP is a good indicator of how much money the country is earning. So if you measure GDP vs debt it is an indicator of how easy it is to pay debt. So if your GDP is low then even a small debt would be hard to pay.

                          As you can see for UK its around 1/3 of what it was in the 30's. Portugal is currently around 130% I think. There is some global data for last year here,

                          GDP vs National Debt by Country -

                          As you can see japan could be real trouble however a lot of their borrowing is internal. India has a high debt ratio and most of that is foreign but investors think its an expanding economy so their cost of borrowing is still low.

                          What this does not show so well is how much of debt is foreign and how much is internal borrowing.

                          yes but we had payed for world war I and were also re-arming and restocking for the approach of WWII which brought about even more debt after the 30's

                          we then embarked on major rebuilding after the war to repair cities new suburbs were formed council housing was introduced in the late 40's and 50's welfare and nhs were all formed you can see by your graphs this is when borrowing was highest

                          this boom in repair and new services created jobs galore and enabled the debt to be payed back to reasonable levels

                          we do not have any bombed cities to repair now the jobs are not as abundant as after the war and the NHS and welfare and government employees are spiralling out of control

                          the price of oil is causing everything to be over priced we cant even make anything in this country because we are too expensive its cheaper to ship from abroad

                          our debt is supposed to actually be ?3.6 trillion with the pension pot i am unsure of what will happen but for certain the private sector needs to grow and the public needs to shrink before it gets so big that the country cant affoerd to keep them

                          Comment

                          • bobwill
                            DK Veteran
                            • May 2009
                            • 525

                            #14
                            This is why we are having to bail out the euro zone ,it all because of the usless labour party .
                            Portugal bailout: Alistair Darling's post-dated cheque just got a whole lot bigger ***8211; Telegraph Blogs
                            another fine mess labour got us into and they signed it after they had lost the last election

                            Comment

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