Will cutting interest rates increase inequality?

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  • The Boss
    Complete Pish DK Veteran
    • Jul 2016
    • 171

    #1

    Will cutting interest rates increase inequality?

    The Bank of England might decide to cut interest rates this week. If it does, the aim will be to stimulate stronger growth and higher, yes higher inflation.
    But such a move would have other consequences too. What, for example, would it mean for inequality?
    There is no guarantee that there will be a rate cut. In fact, some members of the Bank's rate setting body, the Monetary Policy Committee, have been cautious about an early move.
    The main alternatives open to the bank are a cut in its official policy interest rate from the current all-time low of 0.5%, or a resumption of its quantitative easing (QE) programme which involves buying financial assets with newly created money. Both tend to reduce interest rates across the economy.
    These policies also have the potential to alter the distribution of income and wealth.
    So what is the evidence so far?
    Much ink has been spilled over the rather wider question of how inequality has developed in the years since the onset of the financial crisis. Definitions, data sources and the choice of dates for making a comparison can make quite a substantial difference to the conclusions.
    So can the distinction between income and wealth.
    There is also a lot going on that feeds into income and wealth distribution other than interest rate policy. Developments in the labour market affect pre-tax pay levels. Tax and benefits policies also leave their mark.
    Low interest rates are obviously helpful to borrowers. In the period since the financial crisis that applies strikingly to developed economy governments, whose debts have increased markedly.
    But the policy is obviously unwelcome to people - savers - for whom interest is a source of income. It's another question though whether higher rates really would have made them better off.
    Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Some US economists have argued low interest rates have increased poverty there Benoit Coeure, a member of the European Central Bank executive board, has said it would not ultimately have done them any good: "Far from helping savers, higher monetary policy interest rates would only have depressed the economy further."
    What we normally have in mind in talking about inequality is the distribution of income between better- and worse-off groups.
    In a recent speech the Bank of England's chief economist, Andy Haldane, said that since the onset of the financial crisis in 2007, income inequality in the UK had, if anything, fallen.
    The Institute for Fiscal Studies has, however, questioned how long that is likely to remain true.
    But what about the wealth, rather than income? There, Mr Haldane says, the pattern is very different. Since 2010 the bottom fifth have seen their wealth fall. But the wealth of the top fifth has increased by 20%.
    In the United States too, there is evidence pointing to a widening of wealth inequality.
    Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman of the University of California present data suggesting wealth inequality continued to increase in the years after the crisis.
    The trend in their figures was present before then.
    But there is an obvious explanation for what might have supported this development since then: that low interest rates and QE have boosted the prices of assets such as shares and property. It is cheaper to borrow money to buy them and the income they generate may be more attractive than the very low returns on investments that pay interest. So there's more demand for these assets and that pushes up their prices.
    And it is people who are wealthier to start with who have the largest holdings and so they have benefited from the increased value.
    Image copyright AFP Image caption The Fed's low interest rates were intended to aid recovery At the other end of the scale people have no assets so they are simply left behind. They may have debts so the general downward pressure on interest rates may be helpful. But people without assets and with low incomes usually have to pay higher rates than better-off people who are seen by most lenders as less risky borrowers.
    Jeffrey Dorfman of the University of Georgia writing for Forbes says most economists agree widening wealth disparity due to low interest rates is happening, though it's hard to quantify (and some have questioned whether it really did happen that way).
    Prof Dorfman describes the US Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy as "economic meddling". He says income inequality is not something he particularly worries about, but he does care about policies that "single out certain groups for special benefits" - and in this case he is talking about shareholders.
    Of course the Fed's low interest rate and QE policies were intended to stimulate the recovery, rather than change the distribution of wealth. But there's certainly a strong case to say they had that side-effect.
    Perhaps the Bank of England is about to take us in the UK further into the world of very low interest rates. Even if they don't it will be a long time before rates are back to levels we thought of as normal before the financial crisis.
  • super jumbe
    V.I.P. Member
    • Dec 2008
    • 11610

    #2
    Cutting interest rates lots of unemployed on the dole will be homeless its the interest payments they get the higher the less they have to pay...
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    • nara
      DK Veteran
      • May 2008
      • 2586

      #3
      Originally posted by super jumbe
      its the interest payments they get the higher the less they have to pay...

      Maybe I'm reading that wrong, but... being-confused-smiley-emoticon.gif
      He who laughs last probably didn't get the joke.

      Comment

      • GastonJ
        V.I.P. Member
        • Dec 2009
        • 5505

        #4
        Problem is that the pound is worth less, exports may be cheaper, but imports more expensive, so less imports taking place, more demand, goods cost more, inflation rises as a result. The usual way of constraining inflation is to set the interest rate higher, it takes money out of peoples pockets and they don't have the same amount to spend, buy less and so lowers demand, bringing down inflation. However we don't have high inflation, so lowering the rates will/should put more money in peoples pockets, raise demand and so raise inflation. The downside to this is that people may purchase more imports, trade gap widens and the UK drops into a recession.

        Normally a country gets out of a recession by manufacturing more and exporting more. Sure the pound's worth less we may export more, but what manufacturing industry? It's gone, we dont' have coal, we don't have gas, we don't have steel, we manufacture eff all really. So no buying your way out of a recession that way. What Tory governments have previously done is sell things off to make up for it, like gas, oil, steel..... but they're gone. Dunno what's left any more.

        I'd say the country is cked, and would the last person switch out teh light, but I can't because EDF haven't built the power station yet, and may not. However I'm sure they'll be paid well with public money while May decides whether to go ahead or not, and if she doesn't, we'll end up paying them anyway.

        Almost forgot, lowering interest rates is also designed to make saving money worthless, so encourage people to spend their savings instead. Another sign it's cked.
        Last edited by GastonJ; 1 August, 2016, 20:31.
        My master plan is to live forever..... going to plan so far
        Despite the cost of living, it's still very popular.
        No good deed goes unpunished....

        Comment

        • Wolfpack
          DK Veteran
          • Jan 2010
          • 1530

          #5
          Just look at America. Interest rates are next to nothing. It only makes money for the banks and the wealthy. The common person gets the shaft.

          Comment

          • GastonJ
            V.I.P. Member
            • Dec 2009
            • 5505

            #6
            Job done, inequality increased.
            Those that have money won't save/invest it in the UK for a pittance of a return on interest.
            Those thinking of getting cheaper mortgages will bury themselves further in debt for when the interest rate goes up
            Those who now think they have extra money from the rate being lowered will bury themselves further in debt for when teh interest rate goes up
            Those without debt will not benefit at all, so it's meaningless to them to a certain point
            Those spending the debt they have just increased will probably buy more imported goods, so increasing the trade debt and fuel inflation.
            Those getting mortgages will help fuel house price increases
            House price increases will mean an increase in the cost of rents for those who can't afford a mortgage, leaving them less money all round to but goods that will cost more due to riding inflation anyway.

            Well done eh.
            Last edited by GastonJ; 5 August, 2016, 09:17.
            My master plan is to live forever..... going to plan so far
            Despite the cost of living, it's still very popular.
            No good deed goes unpunished....

            Comment

            • nara
              DK Veteran
              • May 2008
              • 2586

              #7
              Originally posted by GastonJ
              Well done eh.

              Blame the numpties who voted Brexit. You reap what you sow.
              He who laughs last probably didn't get the joke.

              Comment

              • DOUGALMCD
                V.I.P. Member
                • May 2011
                • 3229

                #8
                Originally posted by GastonJ
                Job done, inequality increased.
                Those that have money won't save/invest it in the UK for a pittance of a return on interest.
                Those thinking of getting cheaper mortgages will bury themselves further in debt for when the interest rate goes up
                Those who now think they have extra money from the rate being lowered will bury themselves further in debt for when teh interest rate goes up
                Those without debt will not benefit at all, so it's meaningless to them to a certain point
                Those spending the debt they have just increased will probably buy more imported goods, so increasing the trade debt and fuel inflation.
                Those getting mortgages will help fuel house price increases
                House price increases will mean an increase in the cost of rents for those who can't afford a mortgage, leaving them less money all round to but goods that will cost more due to riding inflation anyway.

                Well done eh.
                So nothing changed since before brexit anyway years of systematically making peoples savings worth less wasn't going on before and their pay and working conditions slaughtered over the past 25 years? The pound was also equal to a euro near enough so we're not quite there yet either. The banks are still getting away with murder but wait they've been doing that for years and nobody is accountable so nothing changed eh? The idea has always been to keep people in debt so that they do as they are told unless i'm mistaken. It's always been about controlling the masses.

                Comment

                • GastonJ
                  V.I.P. Member
                  • Dec 2009
                  • 5505

                  #9
                  Yes, we're headed straight for another recession, and again this could have been avoided, it was known it would happen. However recessions don't really hit those that cause them, so it doesn't matter does it. Those with the least lose the most and those with the most never lose. Same old story I suppose. I do think the 2007 issues was artificial designed to balance out the fact that the poor had managed to get more wealth over time and the object of teh game was to ensure that the gap between rich and poor was widened once more.
                  My master plan is to live forever..... going to plan so far
                  Despite the cost of living, it's still very popular.
                  No good deed goes unpunished....

                  Comment

                  • DOUGALMCD
                    V.I.P. Member
                    • May 2011
                    • 3229

                    #10
                    Agree totally Gaston normal people don't get to make decisions cos it's all about the money.

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