are ufos real

[jasbo7]

absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

Oh you tongue twister you

[firemouth]

I'd like to know what this mathematical equation is. not that i don't think that alien life is out there, as we have all seen some things now and again that are unexplained.

Drakes theory of probability!
N = R * x f p x n e x f l x f i x f t x L

Where

N is the number of communicative civilizations.

This in the number of civilisations in our Galaxy, the Milky Way, whose radio emmissions are detectable.

R * is the rate of formation of suitable stars.

The rate of formations of stars with a sufficiently large zone around them in which the surface temperatures would allow the development of lifeforms and whose lifetime is sufficiently long so that they could then evolve into intelligent life. These, not surprisingly, tend to be like our own Sun, so are called Sun-like stars. This rate is approximatly 1 star per year.

f p the fraction of these stars with planets.

The fraction of Sun-like stars with planetary systems is not yet known precisely, but already around a dozen other planets have been found around such stars and so it is likely to be a minimum of 5%, probably nearer 10%. Lets say a probability of 1 in 10.

n e the number of suitable planets per planetary system.

These are those where the surface temperatures would allow liquid water to exist. This implies that it must be sufficiently large to be able to keep an atmosphere. For example both the Earth and the Moon are within the habitable zone of our Sun but the Moon has too little gravity to be able to keep an atmosphere so is lifeless. In our Solar System, Venus is too hot and Mars is now too cold but would have been warmer when active volcanoes gave it an atmosphere. Lets say a probability of 1.

f l the fraction of those planets where life develops.

Life may well not develop on all suitable planets, but there is no good reason to believe that it won't - it appeared here on Earth virtually as soon as conditions became suitable! Lets say a probability of 1.

f i the fraction of these where intelligent lifeforms evolve.

This is one of the major uncertainties! On Earth it took a further 3000 Million years before multicellular life appeared. This suggests that the transition from very simple lifeforms to more complex ones is not easy. So complex lifeforms capable of reason and the other attributes of intelligence could be quite rare. This is a real guess. Lets say a probability of 1 in 1000.

f t the fraction of these where technology develops.

Given that the planet has a benign period long enough to allow unhindered development this should be quite likely. Lets say a probability of 1 in 1.

L the "Lifetime" of communicating civilisations.

This estimate is a real problem. We have no idea how long our civilisation will last. Assuming that we learn how to protect our planet from stray asteroids or comets and can learn to live within the limitations of our Planet, we could survive for 100's of millions of years. So L could be very large.

taken from: http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/research/seti/drake.html

[RedSpider]

man, you go on a bit. . could have just posted a link to the site you got your info from.

[cantona7]

i think firemouth covered the mathematical equation(probability).

i personally believe in ufos,but no i have never seen one or some thing that i could not explain.

but recently worldwide more and more multi sightings are happening and being filmed by people across the globe and unknown to each other,only this morning on google they showed different films in different places of the same or similar thing.
now i'm not saying that film cant be faked or even set up well but who the fcuk do we think we are if we think we are the only intelligent lifeforms in the whole universe(s)
since the dawn of man people have drawn or said they have seen flying objects and yea for the last 50/60 years you can say military secrets but cavemen apparently drew things ufo like on cave walls thousands of years ago,on this mnote i'll leave it but as mulder says "i believe"